Texas Cruz wins Iowa

This was a huge day for Senator Ted Cruz.  Cruz comes in first with Marco Rubio nipping at Trumps heels.  So it came out Cruz, Trump and then Rubio. Trump claims that him missing the debate likely hurt him.  Trump did not miss the opportunity to state that Cruz was doing dubious things that could have cost Trump votes.

After Iowa we had three people drop out of the race.  Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul and Rick Santorum.  I know Santorum is going to endorse someone tonight, but not really sure who that will be.  My guess is that Huckabee supporters will likely go to Cruz or Carsen.  Rand Paul supporters may go to Trump and Rick Santorum voters likely going to Marco Rubio.

Listening to Ted Cruz the day after Iowa results, he sound like a preacher at a tent revival.  No doubt he is trying to energize his supports and catch momentum going into New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Trump tried to sound noble by saying if it meant coming in second to help out the veteran’s then he would do that every time.  The nobility sounds great, it is a matter of whether that is genuine or not.  I will let the veterans decide on their own whether Trump was hiding behind the veterans or really trying to do something for them.  Trump could have done it another night and not missed the event.  Trump is a bit of a revisionist when it comes to what actually happened.

This is Cruz’s night. if Ted Cruz had not had a strong finish, then he may have indeed been on the decline.  The question becomes, can Cruz broaden his base of support.  As others drop out, where will those votes likely go.  Once the establishment types exit, then those votes will likely consolidate behind someone that is not either Trump or Cruz.  Might Kasich or jeb Bush make a splash in new Hampshire and change the calculus altogether.

This really is intriguing politics.  The Sanders against Clinton is fascinating only to the extent that a Socialist is going against a Crony Capitalist.  Both both present other qualities that seem to make liberals ignore some very real concerns with both candidates.

On the Republican side, losing three candidates changes the forecast, but we just do not know how much it will change the forecast.

The other X factor in the election will be how the Iran deals works out. it has already been reported that North Korea and Iran are working together and that North Korea has missiles now that can reach deep into the United States.  If we feel vulnerable, then the blame could end up falling on Hillary’s shoulder.  She swaddled everything Obama at the town hall prior to Iowa.  Those sound bites can be played over and over again with the news of the day about Iran being a bad character and our lack of fortitude to keep our enemies in check.  When you are afraid to show your teeth and bite every now and then, your friends and enemies will run all over you.

It is like being in a fight with a gang.  They threaten you as a unit.  If you go to the biggest guy in the gang and break his nose before anyone else no they are in a fight, then you win and others back down.  If instead you act like you saw a bear in the forest and you slowly move back, you may be okay.  But when you run away from a threat, they will chase you and exact a punishment.  If the Bear is big enough it is likely fatal.  These are not extreme comparisons.  We have a world that is not steady at all.  A lot of bad character all of the world.  Not have true alliances is dangerous.  To have a country will to stand alongside you in a conflict means that you have to be willing to stand alongside them.

I do not believe that Obama would retaliate if any of our friends were attacked.  I think Israel is in a bad place with the Obama administration.  I think Saudi Arabia would be in trouble.  I even think that the UK would have to fend for themselves if Obama could find a way to stay clear of the conflict directly.  All of those shortcomings with Obama will spill over to Hillary.

Cruz, Trump and Rubio need only to continue to connect the dots from Obama to Hillary.  Of course if Iran turns into an ally and becomes a decent player on a global stage, then Hillary has a roadmap to the White House.  The only thing to bring her down would be if the White House allowed the Justice Department to bring an indictment on Hillary after being referred by the FBI.

Indeed there is a lot of information to absorb, but responding to the challenges of the day against everyone’s record will make for quite a roller coaster ride in 2016.

Mom, They are not listening to Me

As Iowa looms near, the political operatives are all trying to earn their paycheck as they strategically position themselves to be propelled ahead of the pack.  The conventional wisdom is that the Republican Field is playing for 3 rd place and hoping that they can eventually consolidate the supporters of the candidates that will slowly start to drop out of the race. The hope is that the establishment vote once consolidated will be greater than Trump and/or Cruz.  So watching the TV ads as the lower tier throws bombs at one another looks like a food fight at the kids table.

The campaign that reeks of this mud slinging and grasping at straws is the campaign of Jeb Bush.  It feels like he is whining because people are not listening to him or his message.  In no way has he said anything that sounds like the same old crap that we have gotten from politicians for decades.  The reason is that either Jeb has no voice worthy of consideration or the handlers and operatives are what the republicans are clearly rejecting.  Jeb keeps wanting to look tough and resolute, but he looks quite meek and looks like he knows that he does not have the mettle to go against Trump on insults or Cruz on Substance.   jeb Bush is the picture of the campaign that reminds of those that cling to power and not those that come to serve.

Perhaps if Jeb Bush fired his entire team and just showed us that there was something different about him, I would be inclined to listen.  With the image that I have right now, that will be tough to overcome.  Jeb Bush just looks weak.  When I see him beg Donald Trump to reconsider his position on immigration, it is not too far fetched to see him saying Mr. Putin we are strongly asking you to reconsider giving Sweden and Norway back.  Weakness is a negative thought that just simmers and gets worse.  Unless he took down a terrorist with his own hands, I am not sure that there is a single thing he could say or do that would change my mind.

I think Jeb knows that too and that is why he asked his Mom for help.  If that does not scream weakness.  if that does not scream stop picking on my son.  If you want to fight someone, fight me.  I love Barbara Bush, but I remember when she was asked about whether she wanted Jeb to run for President before he announced that he indeed was running.  She stated that she did not want him to run.  I think Barbara was in the best position to determine whether this son had the goods to address all of the problems that plague country and decided that Jeb should step backwards not forward.

 

Define Sexism

Donald Trump says the most outlandish things and seemingly gets away with it time and again.  perhaps it is because he also says somethings that are also politically brilliant.  With Democrats false narrative about republicans war on woman, Trump was able to turn the tables in which he should have been in trouble considering the list of things that he has said as it relates to women.  Horrible comments that deserve scorn and condemnation. When Hillary to and easy swipe on him on these obvious truths, she fell victim to her biggest weakness. That weakness is not necessarily Bill Clinton’s infidelity, but rather his abuse of power using state troopers as gophers for the Governor of Arkansas.  Intimidating women and pressuring them into unwanted sexual advances. This behavior seems like actual predator characteristics versus Trump who just talks like the town drunk.

The real weak link here is how the Clintons, both Bill and Hillary went after these women and tried to smear there names and reputations.  It was Bill Clinton the sexual bully and then Hillary the enabler and accomplice to this thuggery.

It is possible to draw a distinction between Trump and Hillary on this issue, but Hillary can no longer play the I am a champion of women when Trump is will to call her out on things that proves that she is first and foremost an Opportunist.  Trump is also an Opportunist and just found an opportunity to take away a big weapon from Hillary.

A Bush in the Hand

I have tremendous respect for George W. Bush in that I believe that he did what he did for what he believed are the right reasons.  However, I did not care for the Karl Rove and team that surrounded him.  The handlers and gatekeepers did not serve the country well.  I believed George W. Bush when it came to his faith and not leaving any kid behind. I believe he mourned every American death, including 9/11/2001, Hurricane Katrina and the military servicemen that have paid the ultimate price.  Away from the cameras, President Bush meets with the family, goes to Walter Reed.  In short, his heart is everything that I want in a President.

Now a third Bush is running for the President and he seems to lack the same something special that lives deep within.  Jeb does have a lot of the same people surrounding him, the George W. Bush had in his inner circle.  That is a team that looked to manipulate the evangelical voter who believed that Faith would be protected and respected.

The inside chatter had it that the inner circle looked as a base that they could easily manipulate.  Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me.  Jeb has the same manipulators and I for one see this as being as bad a choice as a Hillary Clinton Presidency.  Both represent the political insider class that I do not trust as far as I can throw them.  I want an outsider, that does not need a experienced team, but will find the right people on the outside to bring on the inside to solve problems.  A good bit of the problems we face are the cowards that put an “r” next to their name, but have no agenda other than staying in power.

Where as Jeb I see as average, his team gives me chills.  Jeb, stop whining about Donald Trump and say something that has not been spoon fed to you by these power brokers that want to win more than they want to serve.  Grow a pair, dump the team and speak about your agenda in some detail, not a tone that you want to reach while not striking that tone in practice.  I am not a huge Donald Trump supporter, but you trying to go head to head with him makes you look like you are short by a head.

Do something real or just go home.

Democratic Presidential Debate

I am not sure whether it is the luxury of only have three people on stage for the debate tonight, but it certainly seemed like it was much easier to draw distinctions between these three then when nine were on the stage during the Republican Presidential Debate.  What I saw gave me grave concern tonight.  Grave concern, because on the stage I felt like I knew exactly I could expect from any of the three if they were elected President.  What scared me is that the concept of any of the three winning did not terrify me.

 

Bernie represented changing the economy over to Socialist economy where Wall Street and CEO’s could expect for their world to be turned upside down.  Big banks would be forced to be broken up and that Minimum wage would rise to $15 over the next couple of years.  Bernie’s plan also included a trillion dollar investment into the infra-structure to  give a jump start to those unemployed.  The Climate Change may be a  little overstated.  But Bernie did not lose much ground on foreign affairs stating that we need focus on ISIS and not regime change.

 

Hillary was exceptionally sharp tonight.  Her experience showed during the entire debate.  Her answers were more nuanced on national defense, because she was the one in the center of a lot of the planning and executing our current policies.  Hillary drew distinction from Obama without saying as much, stating that she wanted to arm the Syrian moderate forces. Hillary also wants to get rid of ISIS and Assad in parallel.  It does not seem like she will take on Wall Street or the Big Banks, but gives lip service to wanting to help those in the struggling class.  For every attack, I thought she countered flawlessly.  With all of the scandals, all of the concerns about her integrity and acting like she is above the law, she still performs exceedingly well on the big stage.  Projecting who she would face on the Republican Side in a Debate, she will more than able to hold her own.  If she wins back the trust of those she lost because of her telling lies regarding email controversy, she could easily win this election.

Martin O’Malley  was the perfect candidate to stand politically in between Sanders on the Far left and Hillary in the Center.  The problem for Martin O’Malley is that he did not stake out that territory early enough.  Bernie was driving the Agenda when Hillary was expecting to coast to the nomination.  O’Malley gives a good speech and was able to draw distinction between the other two, but after this debate neither Sanders nor Clinton seem to be a scary alternative.  I think O’Malley was hoping to be what the democrats wanted Joe Biden to be.  That blue collar guy that they felt was honest.  Hillary seems to have glided through the trustworthy crisis mode and Bernie has passed through the concern of whether he could handle foreign policy.  O’Malley was good, but so were his opponents.

 

After this debate, it looks like Hillary has Blue Skies ahead. Republicans better get out of the narrative they are currently on or this will be at least another 4 years of left leaning leadership.  If the pendulum does not swing back to the right, our country could forever, be changed.  I personally do not think that is great for our Country. Time will tell.

A Need for Don Quixote

don quixote

So coming into the Democratic Debate being held on a Saturday (great idea Debbie Wasserman Schultz- DNC Chairwoman) we had a bit of dirty politics.  Spoiler alert, Debbie is the villain of this story.  Both the Clinton and Sanders Campaigns host their supporters on a DNC multi-tenant server.  The only thing separating the two campaigns is a thing software wall.  Once the breach occurred, a Sanders staffer looked at the files on the Clinton Server.   Remember that the DNC is the one that is providing the server host, they are the once responsible for the breach.  How does does, Debbie Wasserman Schultz respond to the breach on the DNC server, by locking the Sanders campaign out of their access to their own data.  No examination of the facts, no review of evidence, just an immediate decision to harm the Sanders campaign without any facts.  In fact,  the DNC gave information to the Clinton campaign that was not given to the Sanders camp relative to that breach.  You think Schultz has been offered a major cabinet post, mark my words.  This kind of brash politics is quite Clinton-esque and revolting to millions of people.  I think you can see what happens when there is no accountability.  Corruption flows freely.  Power-Wielders keep a tight grasp on the reigns and will go to brazen lengths to protect it.  Very similar to the RNC and the lengths it will go to to deny Trump his fair chance at being the Republican nominee.  That is another story for another day.

Bernie Sanders is a self-proclaim Socialist with an ideology he believes in and is truthful on what he believes and what he will do.  Kudos if you want to vote for a Socialist.  But that brings us to where we are today.  A large portion of the voting public  would rather have a bit of a nut job who was truthful and had a plan that they honestly believe would help the country.  On the Left you have Sanders.  I think Clinton’s rule will be what is best for Hillary.  The scandles will continue to flow in.  Benghazi, emails on a server, spread falsehoods about the former.  Then on the right you have Trump, Carson, Cruz and Paul.  I include Rand Paul because he is a Libertarian running as a Republican, but he has a plan that he thinks would save America.  Kudos if you are a Libertarian.

Do you think the country is starving for a Don Quixote?  One that revives chivalry, will undo wrongs and bring justice to the world.  The question is there one in the mix.  I hope so.