This was a huge day for Senator Ted Cruz. Cruz comes in first with Marco Rubio nipping at Trumps heels. So it came out Cruz, Trump and then Rubio. Trump claims that him missing the debate likely hurt him. Trump did not miss the opportunity to state that Cruz was doing dubious things that could have cost Trump votes.
After Iowa we had three people drop out of the race. Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul and Rick Santorum. I know Santorum is going to endorse someone tonight, but not really sure who that will be. My guess is that Huckabee supporters will likely go to Cruz or Carsen. Rand Paul supporters may go to Trump and Rick Santorum voters likely going to Marco Rubio.
Listening to Ted Cruz the day after Iowa results, he sound like a preacher at a tent revival. No doubt he is trying to energize his supports and catch momentum going into New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Trump tried to sound noble by saying if it meant coming in second to help out the veteran’s then he would do that every time. The nobility sounds great, it is a matter of whether that is genuine or not. I will let the veterans decide on their own whether Trump was hiding behind the veterans or really trying to do something for them. Trump could have done it another night and not missed the event. Trump is a bit of a revisionist when it comes to what actually happened.
This is Cruz’s night. if Ted Cruz had not had a strong finish, then he may have indeed been on the decline. The question becomes, can Cruz broaden his base of support. As others drop out, where will those votes likely go. Once the establishment types exit, then those votes will likely consolidate behind someone that is not either Trump or Cruz. Might Kasich or jeb Bush make a splash in new Hampshire and change the calculus altogether.
This really is intriguing politics. The Sanders against Clinton is fascinating only to the extent that a Socialist is going against a Crony Capitalist. Both both present other qualities that seem to make liberals ignore some very real concerns with both candidates.
On the Republican side, losing three candidates changes the forecast, but we just do not know how much it will change the forecast.
The other X factor in the election will be how the Iran deals works out. it has already been reported that North Korea and Iran are working together and that North Korea has missiles now that can reach deep into the United States. If we feel vulnerable, then the blame could end up falling on Hillary’s shoulder. She swaddled everything Obama at the town hall prior to Iowa. Those sound bites can be played over and over again with the news of the day about Iran being a bad character and our lack of fortitude to keep our enemies in check. When you are afraid to show your teeth and bite every now and then, your friends and enemies will run all over you.
It is like being in a fight with a gang. They threaten you as a unit. If you go to the biggest guy in the gang and break his nose before anyone else no they are in a fight, then you win and others back down. If instead you act like you saw a bear in the forest and you slowly move back, you may be okay. But when you run away from a threat, they will chase you and exact a punishment. If the Bear is big enough it is likely fatal. These are not extreme comparisons. We have a world that is not steady at all. A lot of bad character all of the world. Not have true alliances is dangerous. To have a country will to stand alongside you in a conflict means that you have to be willing to stand alongside them.
I do not believe that Obama would retaliate if any of our friends were attacked. I think Israel is in a bad place with the Obama administration. I think Saudi Arabia would be in trouble. I even think that the UK would have to fend for themselves if Obama could find a way to stay clear of the conflict directly. All of those shortcomings with Obama will spill over to Hillary.
Cruz, Trump and Rubio need only to continue to connect the dots from Obama to Hillary. Of course if Iran turns into an ally and becomes a decent player on a global stage, then Hillary has a roadmap to the White House. The only thing to bring her down would be if the White House allowed the Justice Department to bring an indictment on Hillary after being referred by the FBI.
Indeed there is a lot of information to absorb, but responding to the challenges of the day against everyone’s record will make for quite a roller coaster ride in 2016.